Coffee Forum

Please login or register.

Bezzera

Author Topic: Climate change threatens world coffee supply  (Read 2626 times)

admin

  • Crema Forum Administrator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2305
  • Gender: Male
  • I love YaBB 1 Gold - SP1!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« on: 18/02/2017, 11:07 AM »
Important article for all of us, and particularly for coffee aficionados:
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/23/science/climate-change-threatens-worlds-coffee-supply-report-says.html



Brett H

  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 4858
  • Gender: Male
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #1 on: 18/02/2017, 10:21 PM »
Mmmmm... okay..... quvkic question.  The rule of 3's.... how flexible can we be on this if for instance, and I'm just putting it out there... we buy up all the beans and put them in a big freezer wi.... oh....crap.... I blame Nespresso!!!
Diadema Junior Extra PID, La Pavoni Professional, Compak K10 Conical, Compak A8 Automatica, Fiorenzato F5, Rancilio Rocky, Behmor 1600, BBQ Roaster (retired), KKTO

askthe coffeeguy

  • On the endless quest for espresso excellence ...
  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2753
  • Gender: Male
  • rancilio epoca (modded), mazzer SJ, gene cafe
    • hey brew coffee to you!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #2 on: 19/02/2017, 01:53 PM »
Quote from the article:

“The extra warmth is enabling those sorts of lines of attack to be strengthened,” said John Connor, the chief executive of the Climate Institute.

John Conner - remember him? The guy who saved the world from the robot apocalypse... Coincidence?

I don't think so !
"The crema which dissipates is not the lasting crema..."

Brett H

  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 4858
  • Gender: Male
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #3 on: 19/02/2017, 08:39 PM »
 :rofl:
Diadema Junior Extra PID, La Pavoni Professional, Compak K10 Conical, Compak A8 Automatica, Fiorenzato F5, Rancilio Rocky, Behmor 1600, BBQ Roaster (retired), KKTO

mycuppa

  • www.mycuppa.com.au
  • Sponsor
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 1103
  • Gender: Male
  • 30 Golden Bean & RAS Medals
    • www.mycuppa.com.au
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #4 on: 25/02/2017, 01:34 PM »
There are perhaps greater threats to coffee supply than just climate.

The fundamental economics of coffee have been stuffed since the boom/bust periods in the 1970's and 80's when some greedy countries attempted to flood the market with mass volumes of rubbish. Lessons were learned but it left an indelible mark on the basic ratios that were apportioned along the supply chains.

Farmers in some origins have to make decisions about whether to use their land for coffee or other crops that either pay more or are less prone to the risks of adverse weather or pests.

Other origins are at risk of sprawling property development (Costa Rica, Panama, etc.) and we all know the which way the value turns in that equation.

In PNG for more than 25 years the land has been raped and pillaged for timber into corrupt economies of South East Asia, or the rich natural resources of oil, coal, gas, copper, gold, etc. mean that farming communities can work in different occupations to earn improved income compared to the marginal returns from coffee that is still largely exploited by large multi-nationals.

Some Central American origins have severe issues with crime, violence and corruption - all outside of the realm from climate change.

The world is going to continue to demand constantly improving coffee qualities across all segments. These are the true supply deficits as competition on the retail side pushes companies to raise their source grades - which in turn creates cycles of prices spikes across the chain.

Reduce price volatility (bring commodities trading under a central authority to stop traders from profiteering on speculative rising and falling of futures), repair social stability in challenging origins and balance equality across supply chains.

These are the influential initiatives that create incentives for coffee farming and boosting falling yields.

Brett H

  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 4858
  • Gender: Male
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #5 on: 25/02/2017, 05:19 PM »
'Twill never happen Jeff.  You may as well ask market manipulators to stop profiting from hard-working producers. :/
Diadema Junior Extra PID, La Pavoni Professional, Compak K10 Conical, Compak A8 Automatica, Fiorenzato F5, Rancilio Rocky, Behmor 1600, BBQ Roaster (retired), KKTO

mycuppa

  • www.mycuppa.com.au
  • Sponsor
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 1103
  • Gender: Male
  • 30 Golden Bean & RAS Medals
    • www.mycuppa.com.au
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #6 on: 25/02/2017, 08:49 PM »
Agree completely Brett........but the one-eyed tree-huggers fail to see the elephants in the room and skew their findings towards the fear and gloom of climate climate change so to create the need to earn more paid consulting revenue with further reporting and commentary.

Attempting to fix the structural problems in global trading markets are laughably impossible - much like addressing social and economic problems in El Salvador, Colombia, Guatemala, Peru, Mexico, PNG and Indonesia.

One the biggest unreported threats to global coffee, particular the specialty segment is the volatility in Ethiopia, the escalating challenges in freight logistics at that origin and it's rapidly declining yields each season. It's quite an important origin in the grand scheme of the coffee universe that also happens to play is rather vital for many coffee companies.

old boy brewer

  • old boy brewer
  • Junior Barista
  • **
  • Posts: 24
  • Gender: Male
  • Hoping to learn.
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #7 on: 28/10/2017, 09:55 PM »
That's why I keep razor blades handy.
"The whole world knew that it was impossible except for the fool who went ahead and did it anyway"  Marcel Pagnol

askthe coffeeguy

  • On the endless quest for espresso excellence ...
  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2753
  • Gender: Male
  • rancilio epoca (modded), mazzer SJ, gene cafe
    • hey brew coffee to you!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #8 on: 29/10/2017, 09:56 PM »
that's why I always keep bout 30kg of green beans on hand for personal use ...
"The crema which dissipates is not the lasting crema..."

admin

  • Crema Forum Administrator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2305
  • Gender: Male
  • I love YaBB 1 Gold - SP1!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #9 on: 20/10/2018, 12:46 PM »
interesting article from SMH last week: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-ugly-truth-about-coffee-sydney-roaster-in-fight-to-keep-industry-alive-20181013-p509gj.html

"Greg Meenahan of World Coffee Research is predicting a shortfall of 180 million bags of coffee by 2050. “Demand for coffee is expected to double by the year 2050, and if nothing is done, more than half of the world’s suitable coffee land will be pushed into unsuitability due to climate change,” he says."


askthe coffeeguy

  • On the endless quest for espresso excellence ...
  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2753
  • Gender: Male
  • rancilio epoca (modded), mazzer SJ, gene cafe
    • hey brew coffee to you!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #10 on: 20/10/2018, 08:53 PM »
that's why I suggest stockpiling in your fallout shelter folks - better safe than sorry !
"The crema which dissipates is not the lasting crema..."

admin

  • Crema Forum Administrator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2305
  • Gender: Male
  • I love YaBB 1 Gold - SP1!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #11 on: 21/10/2018, 04:26 PM »
that's why I suggest stockpiling in your fallout shelter folks - better safe than sorry !
actually Pat, talking about self-sufficiency, assume you have a flourishing grove of plants of the genus arabica growing the in backyard, now that you live in tropical QLD?

askthe coffeeguy

  • On the endless quest for espresso excellence ...
  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2753
  • Gender: Male
  • rancilio epoca (modded), mazzer SJ, gene cafe
    • hey brew coffee to you!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #12 on: 21/10/2018, 08:14 PM »
actually Pat, talking about self-sufficiency, assume you have a flourishing grove of plants of the genus arabica growing the in backyard, now that you live in tropical QLD?
actually my backyard is taken up with a massive swimming pool, but I did plant out a couple of laundry tubs today according to the 'one square metre' gardening philosophy which stipulates that you should only plant out what you can realistically use and are prepared to manage, then add on as required!

my father-in-law has a massive coffee tree growing in his back yard which gives off a fair amount of fruit,  though, but the logistics of harvesting and processing escape me ...
"The crema which dissipates is not the lasting crema..."

admin

  • Crema Forum Administrator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 2305
  • Gender: Male
  • I love YaBB 1 Gold - SP1!
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #13 on: 15/03/2019, 10:45 PM »
as you know, we've been concerned about the coffee producers for some time; latest article from the Fin. Review (sourced from Bloomberg); have attached as a jpg, since the AFR is subscription-only

cheers
A

mycuppa

  • www.mycuppa.com.au
  • Sponsor
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 1103
  • Gender: Male
  • 30 Golden Bean & RAS Medals
    • www.mycuppa.com.au
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #14 on: 16/03/2019, 10:48 AM »
Brazil is seeing some adverse weather conditions and this is likely to add to the already negative sentiments regarding farm investment, so the cycle will change.

The mood in some origins is pretty bad to the point farmers are replacing coffee crops with alternative produce or just mothballing their estates until prices rise, willing to skips a season if necessary.

Sumatra, Costa Rica, PNG, Ethiopia, Kenya all command high differentials in the market.

Today, I pay 300+% more for a Kenyan than I do for a high quality specialty grade Brazil. Its 250% for a Sumatran and with the shortfall in Costa Rica the coming season it will be 200%.

In any market, there are segments and for quality coffee, asking prices are still high as more consumers seek better tasting beverages and roasters lift their quality metrics to adapt to the changing tastes.

When supply tightens in the quality segment, as it does around this time at the tail of the current season (Centrals) whilst awaiting new crop in few months, prices firm.

Coffee is a game of speculative supply versus demand, it’s traded in cycles that are 8+ weeks in front of where we are at today and there is a large chunk of hustling involved around definition of risks.

It’s a shame that the only part that’s reported is the bottom level commodity rate that bears absolutely no resemblance to what ships and sells in many markets, in fact it’s so far off the mark the numbers are not even relevant or realistic.


Brett H

  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 4858
  • Gender: Male
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #15 on: 17/03/2019, 11:08 AM »
Very interesting read Jeff!  Thank you... i knew coffee was traded like any other commodity but had no insight into how. The parallels to Gold are certainly there aren’t they though gold isn’t a consumable (outside of $2000 burgers). How does the perishable nature affect pricing and avilability? Is this year’s crop more expensive than last? I know the mystique of wine-like vintage applies but surely old beans are cheaper than new!? Are their too many variables between storage and wank to make a ‘rule of thumb’ assessment?
Diadema Junior Extra PID, La Pavoni Professional, Compak K10 Conical, Compak A8 Automatica, Fiorenzato F5, Rancilio Rocky, Behmor 1600, BBQ Roaster (retired), KKTO

mycuppa

  • www.mycuppa.com.au
  • Sponsor
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 1103
  • Gender: Male
  • 30 Golden Bean & RAS Medals
    • www.mycuppa.com.au
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #16 on: 17/03/2019, 08:10 PM »
It’s interesting Brett because it’s very rare a coffee is offered at a discount because of its age.

What astounds me is that everything that’s imported somehow seems to find a home, even the lost dogs.

Brokers don’t mark down a coffee and many are guarded or borderline deceptive when asked “how old is this lot”........have even caught out some lying (roasters talk amongst themselves).

Fresh lots are always the preference for roasters but those that need to fill a requirement adopt a beggars can’t be choosers stance. There are times I need a certain origin and varietal and when I go looking it’s a choice of 1, so you pay the rate and try like hell to polish it into a gem.

You don’t haggle or bargain for green coffee, unless you are buying a container upfront, but generally you pay what’s quoted and get on with it......it’s not like buying a new car. I’m sure in the low grade segment there’s a bit of game playing but n the specialty segment it’s already tough to sort the keepers from the leavers.

Coffee prices are relatively low at this point but other input costs like gas, rent, compliance, packaging,  logistics and marketing have all risen by 400% in the last decade, so when you look at standard inflationary factors like CPI, then the cost of the ingredients have become a smaller percentile and yet margins continue to shrinking ni.

When green prices spike, and it’s not a matter of if, but when, then some will be caught with their pants around their ankles.

I’m calling it a correction around October or November this year.






Brett H

  • Global Moderator
  • Old Coffee Fella
  • *****
  • Posts: 4858
  • Gender: Male
Climate change threatens world coffee supply
« Reply #17 on: 17/03/2019, 09:35 PM »
Wow. Amazing insight. Thank you so much!
Diadema Junior Extra PID, La Pavoni Professional, Compak K10 Conical, Compak A8 Automatica, Fiorenzato F5, Rancilio Rocky, Behmor 1600, BBQ Roaster (retired), KKTO

BeanGreen

 

Related Topics

  Subject / Started by Replies Last post
11 Replies
5252 Views
Last post 01/03/2004, 09:31 PM
by diplomat
3 Replies
2223 Views
Last post 12/04/2008, 01:26 AM
by chefrob
5 Replies
2857 Views
Last post 26/09/2008, 01:23 PM
by askthe coffeeguy
9 Replies
3276 Views
Last post 20/04/2011, 08:21 PM
by askthe coffeeguy
4 Replies
3930 Views
Last post 20/11/2011, 07:21 PM
by Bean Flying

coffee