Ah yes, the silly season is upon us and the dance is in motion. That time of year when most of the large contracts are struck between exporters and importers - the volatile Feb - Mar period for shipments of new season crops arriving in April - June. At the moment, there are spot-fires everywhere but the hidden dragon in all of this is the prospect of coffee leaf rust epidemic in Central America that will no doubt end in tears for us all via pricing spikes for our fave El-Sals, Guats, Hondy's, Nicas, etc. as the game of supply versus demand plays out. A variation of 7% in crop yield and a price spikes up is largely an over-reaction by the traders seeking to bluff and bluster their way to another handsome and not-so-insignificant profit on a futures contract - smart traders win on a rising or falling market and they rely upon this type volatility to make money. It's true that robusta diffs have rallied against a falling arabica, but I have a sneaking suspicion the demand has been driven by the boom in single-serve portion control and the energy drink markets. Robusta quality has come a long way in the last few years and quality Roasters will continue to experiment with emerging quality robustas but it's just the humble lab-rat sort of stuff to see if they can improve upon their current formulas or create a clearer differentiation in their blends, rather than the naive and paranoid default first-choice everyone thinks to cut costs.
