wow.. some very interesting points to keep in mind we have to remember either way weather you updose or down dose , the moment water comes into contact with the particles of coffee , it expands - the rate of which is determined by the size of the particles themselves. The finer the particles (the more surface are to volume ratio) the greater the rate of the puck of coffee rising. knowing the method by which coffee particles expand, to a point up dosing will give you an increase of solubility in hot water traveling through the column of coffee particles meaning more flavour/ml/minute but the flip side is should the puck rise to the shower screen to such an extent it actually shatters , thats going to obviously ruin the shot coming out by literally providing an empty space ,draining out all hot water coming through giving you an under extracted shot. keeping all that in mind is probably too much , you simply cant be standing there running calculations while running a shot , one thing is certain though as the first portion of the shot pours out dark coloured compounds called tannins , the next phase occurs when the stream swells and very shortly after slows down this i believe is the point where the puck has risen to full volume , sealed top and bottom and along the wall of the basket. This is also the point at which the extraction is saturated which is where the body originates from , after this point saturation begins to reduce dramatically. with all that in mind some origins will rise faster or slower than others and expand faster or slower and more importantly AGE will be a big factor in all this Let your sight and taste guide you but understand why that puck of coffee shatters in response to overdosing overdosing for me , provided a lot of flavour but i couldnt explain shattered pucks , both horizontal and virticle cracks , i personally find balancing dosage also balances flavour profiles. i tend to dose according to orgin/blend , primarily by sight and more importantly taste , achieving a balance in dosage gives you unbiased results