I think there are some pretty big holes in those numbers - for both revenue and costs. For a place doing 22kg of coffee a week, $100 of milk will not go very far - maybe a day and a half !. I often see and hear owners talk about XX kgs of coffee per week, but in 70% of cases, this number is always inflated - sometimes by more than 50% !. Ensure you spend a lot of time there on the busiest day to validate. Even doing 22kg, at a standard rate of 60 cups per kilo @ $4 a cup, that's just $5.3K in revenue per week, or around half the stated weekly turnover. Obviously, there must be some food takings as well, or other beverages, etc. Of course, if you can get 75 cups per kilo (not always easy to achieve) that number goes up a little bit, but still well short of the stated revenue. $2K/week in rent - you may find this will rise by at least 3 - 5% per year via the standard agreements and if it's been 5 years since a market review, then it could jump 10 - 15% (or even higher) in a single year. Outgoings are typically up to 20% of rent, depending on the situation, e.g. body corp, landlords building insurances, rates, utilities, regulatory requirements (ESM), etc. Remember, there are other costs a cafe incurs with preparing cups of coffee beside just beans - crockery, utensils, furniture, equipment, etc. Many retail lease agreements have clauses that allow a percentage of the sales to be factored into the monthly lease payments at certain levels. Some landlords also have clauses that obligate you to periodic renovations, e.g. once every 24 - 36 months, etc - check very carefully as these costs can run into very big numbers as the landlord has right to dictate aspects of the design, materials and finishes (I have a cafe that is going through this nightmare at the moment - the reno is costing almost double the original estimate). Don't forget to count the non-trading days over a year into your weekly figures. It may be quite challenging to rely upon a single staff member - who does the work when they are sick or on holidays. It's best to factor 1.4 as the staff costs - hospitality has extreme labor volatility. The most important consideration you need to factor is COMPETITION. The coffee landscape changes daily - new places are opening or modifying their offer all the time, so if you rely upon a percentage of your business from regulars you will face many periods each year where sales will drop anywhere from 20 - 40% for a short time (weeks) as customers try something new. Always budget around 75% of last year's sales as your forecast and use this number in your projections. Look at worst case scenarios before you commit. Work on 66% of sales and 120% of rent+labour.
